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Positive outlook for pubs according to Geoff Collyer, Deutche Bank

The pub sector is in the best shape its been for three decades and it has plenty of scope to grow and take market share as the economy improves, according to leading analyst Geof Collyer in an extensive report published in April on the UK’s pub and restaurant industries.

In the 129-page report called The Chips Are Up, Collyer, of Deutsche Bank, who also predicted a return of M&A in the sector, said pub groups are emerging from the “perfect storm” of recent years in “much better shape”.

“Having survived the smoking ban, above inflation excise beer duty increases and the recession, as well as a more conservative attitude towards leverage, the pub sector has emerged in much better shape, in our view, than at any stage in the past three decades. Despite the significant decline in beer volumes – now 45% lower than 15 years ago – the sales mix of the pub groups is now more geared to growth than a rear guard action on declining volumes.